Overview –
While no one knows exactly what will happen in the future, groups and organizations
could benefit taking a hard look at possible future situations.  There is rarely a single
scenario (as they are called) that outlines the future clearly.

Review the overview of scenario building at
http://www.si.umich.edu/V2010/scenproc.html

Then, create a scenario, step, by step…

Step 1: Deciding on the Question What is the question?

Step 2: Identifying the Key Factors  What are the key factors?


Step 3: Identifying the Larger Driving Forces What are the larger driving forces?

Step 4: Ranking Factors for Import and Uncertainty  Rank the factors for import and
uncertainty.

Step 5: Choosing Factors to Structure a Matrix   Choose two Factors to Structure a Matrix.


Optional  (6-10 are optional, 10 points extra credit)

Step 6: Filling in the Details in Each Quadrant of the Matrix

Steps 7 & 8: The Payoff--Implications and Early Indicators

Step 9: Drafting the Four Scenarios  Step 10: Refining and Rewriting  Write one brief
scenario.

You may reach Dr. Steele directly at sfsteele@aacc.edu

Important Links

• Institute for the Future