Forecasting

Futures Research Methodology, Version 2.0 edited by Jerome Glenn.  Millennium Project, 2003. 

Practical articles on how to use 25 of the most tools in futures studies.

“Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead," Pierre Wack, Harvard Business Review, Sep-Oct 1985.

One of the seminal works on scenario planning by the person who introduced it to Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s.

The Art of the Long View : Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World by Peter Schwartz. Doubleday, 1996.

The best business book on how to apply futures thinking and scenario development in a business.

Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation by Kees Van Der Heijden.  John Wiley, Feb 1997.

An excellent conceptual introduction to strategic thinking and scenario planning.

Scenarios: Wired Special Edition, 1995.

A special edition of Wired magazine devoted to scenario development.  Two of the notable contributions are:  "How to Build Scenarios," by Lawrence Wilkinson: 74-81 and

"The World Disorder," by Peter Schwartz: 104-105, 150.  These are also available at the Web site for the Global Business Network.

Learning from the Future : Competitive Foresight Scenarios  by Liam Fahey (Editor), Robert M. Randall (Contributor). John Wiley, 1997.

Details on scenario techniques with case studies.

Scenario Planning : Managing for the Future  by Gill Ringland, Keith Todd.  John Wiley, 1998.

The textbook of choice for scenario development at the present time.

Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool by Michel Godet.  Economica. 2001.

An alternative and more mathematical approach to scenario planning.

20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World by Hugh Courtney. Harvard Business School Press, 2001.

The director of planning for McKenzie admits that old, straight-line forecasts are no longer useful in a time of rapid and turbulent change.  He advocates a more contingent, scenario approach, even for this most successful of business consulting organizations.

Issues Management: How You Can Plan, Organize and Manage for the Future by Joseph Coates. Lomond 1986.

The original how-to book on scanning for the future from one of the best trend analysis organizations in the business.

A Manager's Guide to Technology Forecasting and Strategy Analysis by Stephen M. Millett, Edward J. Honton. Battelle, 1991.

A brief synopsis of the full-range of futures tools used to forecast technology.

Out of the Blue: Wild Cards and Other Big Future Surprises: How to Anticipate and Respond to Profound Change by John L. Petersen.  The Arlington Institute, July 1997.*

An outrageous assortment of futuristic wildcards that would radically change the world if any one of the occurred.

Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting by Nicholas Rescher. SUNY Press, 1998.

A highly technical approach to forecasting.

Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners edited by J. Scott Armstrong. Kluwer, 2001.

A comprehensive guide to all forms of forecasting, both quantitative and qualitative.

Conquering Uncertainty:  Understanding Corporate Cycles and Positioning Your Company to Survive the Changing Environment by Theodore Modis. McGraw-Hill, 1998.

How to use S-curve changes to forecast almost anything.

Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning as a Tool for a Better Tomorrow by James A. Ogilvy. Oxford University Press, 2002.

Scenario planning, a process for making better decisions by examining possible futures. Creating Better Futures frames the issue in a philosophical context and shows how to apply scenario planning creatively to guide our shared future. An unabashedly hopeful book for anyone interested in steering humankind toward future success.