John Sagi

“…A new communications technology was developed that allowed people to communicate almost instantly across great distances, in effect shrinking the world faster and further than ever before. A worldwide communications network whose cables spanned continents and oceans, it revolutionized business practice, gave rise to new forms of crime, and inundated its users with a deluge of information. Romances blossomed over the wires. Secret codes were devised by some users, and cracked by others. The benefits of the network were relentlessly hyped by its advocates, and dismissed by the skeptics. Governments and regulators tried and failed to control the new medium. Attitudes to everything from newsgathering to diplomacy had to be completely rethought. Meanwhile, out on the wires, a technological subculture with its own customs and vocabulary was establishing itself…”

What a terrific description of our Internet-enabled world, Yet it was describing the 18th century and the telegraph in Tom Standage’s popular book Victorian Internet.

From Standage’s description of communications technology, one might conclude we haven’t proceeded very far at all in 200 years. Yet, given another glance, and seen through a different lens, the technologies and commercial uses today have grown in directions only imagined by the Victorians.

To discuss the future of electronic commerce is to project the future of communications technologies, since these are the enablers. ECommerce doesn’t necessarily mean the Internet, but the focus is there today. Further, eCommerce isn’t limited to businesses and consumers but often extends to employees, suppliers, governments and citizens. ECommerce involves quite a broad group of enablers and users.

Business and governments take advantage of these communications technologies by applying the principles of marketing, the “mix” of pricing, place, product and promotion of goods, services and information; and the “utilities” of marketing: time, possession and location.

While the future of eCommerce is uncertain, there are aspects of communications technologies that can be projected with some probability. For example, we know for sure that communications will be faster, more global and more ubiquitous than we know them today. And those qualities, applied to marketing, may yield some surprising results.

We are already seeing hints. Today’s video stores are almost empty. Web-based rental services are immensely popular. Mall-based kiosks are beginning to sell movies and utility software as commercial Internet connections permit almost instantaneous entertainment downloads. No more need to clutter a store with limited quantities of DVD and VCR media.

Parents easily peer into their homes from anywhere in the world. Places and people are being monitored from afar. Auto agencies readily track the locations and speeds of their quarry to ensure compliance with insurance and rental agreements.

Wireless communications technologies such as Bluetooth and WiFi allow freedoms unknown to the Victorians. Cell phones are used as credit cards to pay for soda machine candy. Walmarts are introducing RFID devices into products to permit faster transactions and reduce theft.

African nations have websites that sell rice to local customers, completing the transaction with credit card payments from the US. Today’s native stranger becomes tomorrow’s ready customer.

Given the current advances, peering a bit further into the future is risky but possible. For example, businesses and consumers will benefit from property that “knows” its been stolen. Global Positioning Systems will help safely navigate large and dangerous earth moving trucks. Las Vegas casino chips will have imbedded transponders showing their “movement” across the tables.

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